Poll: Trump-Harris race tightens to within margin of error in Florida

Even in red Florida, a surge of Democratic enthusiasm has helped narrow the gap between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris.
A Florida Atlantic University-Mainstreet Research poll released Wednesday, Aug. 13, shows Trump edging Harris by just 3 points among likely voters, 50% to 47%. When Robert F. Kennedy Jr. was added to the mix, the alternative party candidate drew 5% of the vote and Trump’s lead over Harris fell to 2 points, 47% to 45%.
FAU pollster Kevin Wagner said the Florida results track a “national trend line” that shows Harris’ entry into the race has closed gaps that had been expanding in Trump’s favor when President Joe Biden was the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee.
The poll was partially conducted online so a margin of error was not assigned. However, a survey of this size, 1,055 voters, would generally have a margin of error of 3 percentage points.
“Increasingly, since Harris got in the race, this thing has tightened quite a bit,” Wagner said, noting that a poll they conducted last month showed Harris trailing Trump in Florida by anywhere from 6 to 8 points. “It suggests that, at least for now, this has become a very competitive race, even in a state like Florida that has a Republican lean.”
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The FAU-Mainstreet survey follows two other polls issued this week that showed Trump with broader leads in the state. A USA TODAY/Suffolk University poll found Trump toppoing Harris by 5 points, 47% to 42%. Another survey issued by the conservative business lobbying group, the Associated Industries of Florida, had Trump up by 7 points, 53% to 46%, in a head-to-head match-up.
Wagner, an associate dean at FAU, said the tightening contest is not too surprising given that “when you look underneath the numbers,” Harris has managed to bring back traditional Democratic blocs and is now polling more than 90% support among her party rank-and-file.
What was notable, he said, was that Kennedy “seems to hurt Donald Trump a little bit” and makes the race a bit closer for Harris, though it is not clear whether that will hold up.
But Wagner said the numbers point that the strength of Harris’ movement in the polls lies in the “consolidation phase.”
“Many of the groups that traditionally would support Democrats but weren’t very enthusiastic about Joe Biden, I think one of the things we can see now is that they have come home to Harris,” he said. “Ultimately it looks like what this will be is a turnout race — whoever is able to generate more enthusiasm among their base and get those voters out is likely to have the advantage.”
He added: “I think we’ve reached the equilibrium state where the Democrats have come home, the Republicans have come home and we have a tight race.”
In addition, the survey looked at the choice of Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as Democratic vice presidential running mate and said it has helped Harris, at least at the outset. Wagner said there remain a “lot of unknown” about Walz.
“The initial look is that Walz certainly hasn’t hurt Harris in the state of Florida and may actually be helpful to her,” he said. “But it’s really early in the race and for many people, they don’t know him that well, so we’ll have to see where those numbers go.”
Nevertheless, an earlier FAU-Mainstreet Research poll showed GOP vice presidential nominee J.D. Vance’s unpopularity served as a drag on Trump, and Wagner said “it is safe to say that” Walz has had a bit better of an introduction than Vance over the past month.
Harris-Walz campaign officials in Florida said Wednesday they would not comment on polling. But they noted that they have signed up a wave of volunteers, more than 21,000, to their ground game.
“The Harris-Walz campaign is more than fired up in Florida and across the country — we’re channeling this monumental excitement into real action and votes,” said state director Jasmine Burney Clark in a statement. “We know that Florida is a tough fight but we’re a critical state, and we’re putting in the work on the ground doing what it takes to win.”
Florida Republican Party officials were undaunted. They marked a major achievement this weekend when their advantage in GOP voter registrations over those of Democrats surpassed 1 million.
In a series of posts on X, formerly Twitter, state GOP Chairman Evan Power noted that in 2018 Democrats possessed a 300,000-vote advantage. Polls, he said, are apt to ignore “these underlying changes” in Florida’s.
“Decades of strong GOP leadership have made our state a beacon of freedom & prosperity in our nation,” he wrote. “On 11/5, we will Make America Great Again.”
He added: “As I said at the convention we are running this race like we are 10 points down.”
Antonio Fins is a politics and business editor at The Palm Beach Post, part of the USA TODAY Florida Network. You can reach him at [email protected]. Help support our journalism. Subscribe today.